Tag Archives: reviews

Friends with Books: Yiannis, Elliott, and David and the State

A few friends came out with excellent books during the past two years, and it is worth their mention. A lot of friends do garbage work, so the mere mention of these books is meaningful. This is part two of some.

Yiannis G. Mostrous, Elliott H. Gue, and David F. Dittman‘s The Rise of the State
Yiannis and team argue that the state will continue to increase its role in the economic sphere, making it an important (and valuable) consideration for financial decisions. The two most obvious examples of the state’s more pronounced relationship with markets are (1) TARP-like bailouts that occurred in the US and is ongoing in Europe to stop contagion and (2) sovereign wealth funds. The list goes on, of course, and most of The Rise of the State is dedicated to infrastructure, energy, and what might poorly be referred to as development plays that are a consequence of the state’s pro-active role in investment.

The ground that The Rise of the State covers makes it a nice complement to the group’s newsletters, including The Energy Strategist, Global Investment Strategist, and the always fun Cocktail Stocks, as well as Yiannis and Elliott’s first book, The Silk Road to Riches (co-written with Ivan Martchev). With the exception of David’s work, which tends to focus on Canada or general market and legal issues, the team’s efforts often concentrate on this infrastructure-energy-development triangle, with frequent spotlights shown on consumer goods.

Unlike the newsletters, though, The Rise of the State fills in the triangle’s outlines with an explicit thesis regarding the state that is long overdue: that, recently, the state has been under-recognized as a significant market player and understanding the state’s behavior and motives can lead to excellent returns. Also, the book takes a longer-term view–years, not weeks and months–of the market and the book’s recommendations, making it a complement to the newsletters. Ultimately, the book serves to reassure readers who are nervous regarding the US financial situation that crashes and state meltdowns have occurred before that other states take their place, move forward, and make money for those who have invested wisely.

The idea behind the book and the investment strategy and recommendations the authors make–both of which I have tracked for years–are excellent. In fact, I recommend the book–and the newsletters–to anyone interested in guided investment decisions, as well as those investors particularly concerned with about the United States and keen on the rise of the East. Keep in mind, though, that the book’s time horizon on investments is longer than most newsletter subscribers are accustomed and it is not just a list of tickers for you to buy (although there are many recommended stocks in each chapter).

My issue with the book is its dual character: part thesis on the evolution of markets and finance and part exploration of stocks and which ones investors should consider buying. Ideally, this book actually would be two paired together, allowing the authors to fully explore each dimension and allowing the reader to digest the material within the relevant scope. As it is, the book begins as a polemic about the rise of the state (Chapters One through Four) and then switches to a more modular series of chapters on specific and varying topics (e.g., oil, water, coal, demographic changes and their consequences). Each chapter starts by carrying through the thesis but switches to relevant financial plays. True, this organization is effective and efficient, but it may leave readers wanting more–more of the argument, more information, more data, and more stock recommendations.

In the end, criticizing the book for leaving the reader so hungry at the end is high praise. After all Yiannis and crew has made us salivate and provided a few excellent dishes. Perhaps a third book will satisfy that remaining hunger; in the mean time, it is up to the reader to make good use of what s/he has been provided.

Friends with Books: Nils and EP Party Cohesion

A few friends came out with excellent books during the past two years, and it is worth their mention. A lot of friends do garbage work, so the mere mention of these books is meaningful. This is part one of some.

Nils Ringe‘s Who Decides and How?
Nils’ book is an excellent alternative explanation for European Parliament party cohesion that avoids the disturbingly trodden ground of the importance of left/right and national dimensionalities. Instead, Who Decides, and How?, argues that the positions adopted by expert MEPs affects the votes of other MEPs, thereby creating group/party action:

Nonexpert MEPs do not just follow any policy specialist, however, since they have to be concerned with the consequences of the legislation they enact. Therefore, they adopt the positions of their expert colleagues in the responsible committee whose preferences they believe most closely match their own. This is based on the assumption that these positions resemble what they would favor if they possessed the resources and expertise required to truly judge the content and likely implications of a specific policy proposal. The critical mechanism explaining the policy choice of MEPs is thus what I label perceived preference coherence (PPC) between expert and nonexpert legislators.

This approach offers a few accomplishments lacking in the existing literature. First, it nicely incorporates a degree of flexibility that parsimoniously explains variations across votes within (informal) MEP groups. That is, the PPC formation process allows individual MEPs to factor and weigh information in different ways for different issues and situations. The rather impositional and templated traditional explanation can only offer that same degree of flexibility through a more complicated process that does little to instill confidence in handling a large number of varied vote outcomes.

A second benefit of Nils’ approach is that it explains party cohesion in a bottom-up, rather than top-down, manner. Rather than forcing dimensionality to explain the long-standing argument that parties control their members, Who Decides, and How? argues that individual MEP preferences lead to group/party behavior/cohesion. That is, the members make the party rather than the party making the members. While Nils does not dismiss the key factors in the top-down approach, it is rather shortsighted to ignore the role of actors, especially when keeping in mind the lack of resources EP parties have to control their members (as compared to other political parties).

A third benefit to this PPC approach is that it is more generalizable. Not only does the theory work well in legislators where parties have more whipping capabilities (e.g., US Congress), but also where the ideological landscape is not accurately distilled to a simple notion of left/right. In fact, this left/right focus has become a bit of a burden on the traditional explanations as the the legislative agenda, MEP membership, and general composition of the EU has changed over time, including but not limited to the incorporation of eastern Europe. As a result, there are frequent attempts to redefine, expand, or simply force the left/right model of ideological dimensionality, rather than simply bypassing it with a more parsimonious and generalizable model, such as the one Nils offers.

The PPC argument rests upon the flow of information among MEPs, meaning that social-network issues and questions are near. Although Nils’ methods in this book are varied and a beautiful example of how so-called quantitative and so-called qualitative methods can be nicely reconciled for a given research project, he does not rigorously dive into the social networks of MEPs and whether the empirical evidence from this line of questioning supports his argument. This and my other responses to Who Decides, and How? are, admittedly, beyond the scope of this book, but something he has considered nevertheless. In fact, his recent work has tackled this issue using a social network framework, specifically in the following three works:

Beyond Cheap Talk and Free Lunch: The Social and Political Power of Legislative Member Organizations, under contract at The Michigan University Press

The Social Utility of Informal Institutions: Caucuses as Networks in the 110th US House of Representatives,” with Jennifer N. Victor, American Politics Research, Volume 37, Issue 5 (peer-reviewed special issue on ‘Social Networks and American Politics’), September 2009, 742-766.

“Keeping Your Friends Close and Your Enemies Closer: Information Networks in Legislative Politics”, with Jennifer N. Victor and Justin H. Gross

Now only if he would take the criticisms I levied at existing SNA work during a conversation over an espresso on a beautiful summer day in Paris two summers ago seriously.

Album Reviews

1—->3—->5
Terrible—->Fantastic

5
Burial and Fourt Tet – Wolf Club and Moth
V/A – Ego Trip Hip-Hop’s Greatest Singles, 1988
Ellington, Duke – Duke Ellington Centennial Edition, The
Ellington, Duke – Ellington at Newport, 1956
Fever Ray – Fever Ray
Miller, Glenn – Best of, The (1938-1942)
Montgomery, Wes – Incredible Jazz Guitar of Wes Montgomery, The
Montgomery, Wes – Tequila
Simon & Garfunkel – Bookends
Simon & Garfunkel – Bridge Over Troubled Water
Simon & Garfunkel – Concert in Central Park

4
Adams, John Luther – Light that Fills the World, The
V/A – Anthology of American Folk Music
Benga and Coki – Night
Biz Markie – Goin’ Off
V/A – Blaxploitation, Volume 03 The Payback
Blythe, Arthur – Lenox Avenue Breakdown
Brightback Morning Light – Motion to Rejoin
Cenobites, The – LP
Cloud Cult – Meaning of 8, The
Copeland, Eric – Hermaphrodite
Cymande – Best of Cymande, The
Dan the Automator – A Much Better Tomorrow LP
DJ Slugo and DJ Apollo – Juke or Die, VOlume 03
Droid and Slug – Live at Studio B [20040604]
Durrty Goodz – Axiom
Eddy Current Suppression Ring – Eddy Current Suppression Ring
V/A – Fire EP
GroovyPanda – Chilled French House Mix [20011231]
V/A – Hardware Chronicles, Volume 01
V/A – Hardware Chronicles, Volume 02
Headhunter – Live on Lorna Clarkson Show, FBI Radio in Sydney [20090324]
V/A – Hitsville USA Motown Singles (CD04)
Joker – Do It Psychedelic Runway
Krall, Diana – Quiet Nights
Kuma – Dawn Stepped Outside Lost in Translation
MF Doom – Born Like This
Mochipet – Dim Sum
Moderat – Moderat
Molemen – Lost Sessions
Monk, Thelonious – Newport Jazz Festival
Mr. Life – I Heard It Today
Mr. Life – Mo’ Mega
Pangaea – You and I Router
Perkins, Dudley – A Lil’ Light Instrumentals
Perkins, Dudley – Expressions
Quantic – 5th Exotic, The
Quantic – An Announcement to Answer
Quantic – Mishaps Happening
Quantic Soul Orchestra, The – Pushin’ On
Quantic Soul Orchestra, The – Stampede
Remute – Bounce 23
Royksopp – Junior
Russell, Arthur – 2424 Music Dinosaur L
Sonic Youth – External, The
V/A – Sounds of the South
Sparklehorse – Dark Night of the Soul
Tinariwen – Aman Iman
Tinariwen – Amassakoul
Tosca – No Hassle
Who, The – My Generation the Very Best of the Who
Who, The – Tommy
XX Teens – Welcome to Goon Island
XX, The – XX