Author Archives: Jason

About Jason

Jason R. Koepke is Founder and Data Strategist at GNT LLC, a risk-analysis and data strategy firm that provides analytical and technical services to the public and private sectors. His work and research has been featured in the academic, financial, and technical industries.

Must See ECB

It seems as if the European Central Bank is tired of people complaining it should abandon its price-stability mandate. Because cartoons make everything easier to understand, the ECB has begun using cartoon characters to make the case for price stability. The pamphlet (pdf) with the cartoon characters and explanations is nice, but the video (WMV), and its star the Inflation Monster, is eight minutes of economic fun. More information, including alternative video formats, can be found on the main “educational” site.

Inflation Monster

Although I appreciate the cartoon, it is not the reason I support the 2-percent inflation-rate target; instead, I prefer to look at the research, including European history. That research suggests the best path toward increased growth is a package of structural reforms. Doing so maintains the existing rules and, therefore, avoids putting the European project on a slippery slope of economic and institutional stagnation–something the collapse of the Stability and Growth Pact is already doing.

Turning toward the ECB to stimulate growth is more surprising because the Lisbon Agenda is a set of agreed upon structural reforms designed to spur the eurozone’s economy. Instead of blaming the central bankers and looking to them for an easy out of a slow growth patch, politicians and citizens should work toward solutions and reforms that build upon existing agreements (e.g., the inflation-rate target). Doing so avoids creating credibility problems and facilitates future agreements.

AI Movies

GSE told me about a behind-the-scenes documentary for the Chronicles of Narnia movie. I have not been able to find more information on the documentary (e.g., where and when it played and what it covered) and a quick Web search for information did not turn up anything, but my coworker mentioned a few interesting bits.

In the movie, there are many different types of creatures, all of which are designed with and entered into the movie’s computer system. Each creature-type was given parameters for behavior and movement. For hybrid creatures, such as centaurs (or ligers), the movie makers used the computer system to take parts from different types of creatures and combine them into the desired hybrid, bringing the parameters of those body parts with it.

A second interesting bit he shared is that battle scenes were created with artificial intelligence (AI). The production team placed the characters in the scene (e.g., 10 swordsman and 5 archers, some located here, others located there) and then used AI to conduct the battle. Each type of character has specific parameters that dictate general behavior, but each character’s actions differed due to chance and its interaction with its environment, including the other characters it fought. This saved the team time because they did not need to direct every character on the battlefield and it maintains a set of “reality” since each character follows a different path. This may be similar to some of the games, such as Age of Empires, although I am not sure (lack of familiarity with AoE and similar games).

Not that I am an expert on special effects or AI, but this represents a jump in (at least the implementation of) computer technology. The next (creative) step is to produce an entire film that’s governed by the computer system (i.e., without human input).

In discussing this with two coworkers (G. and M.), one noted that there would not be a plot. True, and I am not so sure this is a bad thing, especially for an experimental first go. The coworker who told me about the documentary suggested that parameters could be built into the environment that would require certain events or actions, such as a set number of massive battles (or, I mentioned, a love arc). That would guarantee some sort of plot. He also suggested that a human team could dub vocals over the computer-generated action to help develop and communicate the plot.

Very interesting.

New/Old Media

I recently wrote an article (“Old Media’s New Might”) about whether “old media” can survive and what it must do to prosper. The article is written from a personal investment perspective (e.g., I recommend stocks and make market analysis), although a significant chunk of the text is a more general analysis. The general theme fits in with the dotcom redux that the market, tech, and many industries, are currently experiencing.

There was not enough space to expand on certain issues in the article, and one of the trends that is not receiving nearly enough attention, by tech and market types, is MySpace.com. Some have said that News Corp overpaid for it, but in two years nearly everyone will agree it was a smart move. As one discussant said at a Pulver Media show I recently attended about MySpace.com’s South Korean counterpart CyWorld, “Do you want to get laid? Well, you can’t get laid if you’re a South Korean youth without a CyWorld page.”

The article I wrote appears in the November 23, 2005 issue of Personal Finance, which is the largest personal investment newsletter in the country. PF is aimed at a general audience of investors, covering many different industries and investment themes.

The general analysis section of the article is below the jump. If you’d like the market analysis and stock recommendations, let me know and I can provide you with a trial username and password for the site.
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